But what have we really learned so far? Swine flu seems to be spreading, but not a lot of people seem to be dying. In fact, the World Health Organization has downgraded the number of deaths in Mexico from 168 to 16. That's a big difference seeing how we were all so afraid of swine flu (aka the H1N1 virus) primarily BECAUSE OF the mortality rate in Mexico.
There has been one confirmed death of swine virus in America - a Mexican toddler that was visiting the U.S. Any death is a tragedy, but as far as the flu goes, this one has not yet reached the deadliness of the seasonal flu. On average, 200,000 Americans are hospitalized with the seasonal flu every year and 36,000 die (Source). So if last week was an average week, close to 700 people died of the seasonal flu, 1 of the swine flu.
We don't have a large enough sample size to know if swine flu is more likely to kill you once you contract it than the seasonal flu. Given the low incidents and initial mortality rates though, one thing is becoming clear at this point. Statistically you are MUCH more likely to die today from seasonal flu than from swine flu. And probably more likely to die in a car wreck than either of those.
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On Friday, May 8th, Adam said:
I would agree with that. I think the diseases aren't necessarily worse, but through globalization and easy and cheap travel, transmission is much easier.
Can't imagine something as lethal as 1918 in today's world. Hopefully the increase in science/technology will save us from our science/technology. This seems like a Carl Sagan theme all of a sudden.
Time to whip out our favorite Carl Sagan quotes:
'We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology.'
On Wednesday, May 6th, Mike said:
Adam, do you think there is a good reason that the swine flu has been so over-hyped? As you mentioned the swine flu turned out to be less lethal than the flu. Why are there warnings that it may return in the fall?
When initial cases of the swine flu were reported it was probably unclear how lethal and communicable the disease would be. If it could be an epidemic then the only way to stop it is to take extreme measures early. This may be why countries started closing borders.
Another thing to consider is that we will essentially have 2 flu seasons this year (as opposed to 1). Granted, deaths caused by swine flu pale in comparison to seasonal flu. However, if we continue to have a second flu season, it may indicate that diseases are getting worse faster than medicine is advancing.
On Sunday, May 3rd, How I Lost Thirty Pounds in Thirty Days said:
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